Donna Maria's 2009 Indie Business Predictions

Indies, It's Your Year!!

It's the season for 2009 predictions! I couldn't resist throwing mine into the fray. While I have plenty of ideas about what 2009 will bring in a general sense, the predictions in this post will focus on the year from the perspective of Indie Business owners.

       

I strongly believe that this is our year! Or, I should say that it could be our year. Whether or not a particular business will actually make the most of 2009 is up to each individual business owner. Recognizing the trends is an important part of making the most of any year, and I think that my Top 10 Indie Business Predictions are the ones to watch, plan for and act on for success in 2009.

1. Social Media Will Explode. Again.

This one is easy. If you are an Indie Business owner and have not begun to incorporate social media into your marketing program, your business will begin (or continue) dying a slow but certain death in 2009. If you're new to social media, and terrified of it, start with your own blog and a Twitter account to get your feet wet. (Take my free blogging tutorial here.) Don't wait to get started. It will spell disaster if you do. This trend will naturally result in the next one.

2. Social Networks Will Begin to Replace Traditional Email

As Indies incorporate their favorite online social spots into their lives and businesses, they will find more ways to make it efficient for them to hang out there. This means that traditional email communications tools that are cumbersome or take too long to use will be phased out of their lives. Over the past few months, how many times have you said: "DM me" instead of: "Send me an email message"? I rest my case.

3. There Will Be More Bankruptcies and Layoffs

This is not news really so I guess it's an easy prediction. I hate to say it, but it's true. But with smart use of the Internet and the new technologies it has spawned, you won't have to worry much. If you're Indie, your job is safe because you are your job. What could be better than that?

4. People Will Voluntarily Use Less Credit

And doggone it, it's about time we started being happy with our 19-inch television set, and stop buying the latest wall mounted flat screen with someone else's money. Some people will voluntarily surrender their credit cards while others will be forced to do so. But in the long run, by the end of 2009, everyone will voluntarily use less credit, even when it's available to them. Some may not like this prediction, but I've been advocating it for well over a year -- when it wasn't such a popular topic. Some will say that use of less credit will further weaken global financial markets. I don't know much about that, but if a weak global economy is the price I have to pay to strengthen my own personal economy, I'm pretty much OK with that.

5.  Girl-Owned Indie Businesses Will Make Money Online Faster Than Boy-Owned Ones

Sorry guys, I think it's true. With the continued explosion of social media outlets and our natural ability to take advantage of it as a relationship building tool, more similarly situated woman-owned businesses will become profitable faster than most similarly situated man-owned ones. And because while we're socializing together, we have a tendency to buy from each other, well, we're gonna be passing around our girl dollars to each other a lot more often next year This leads directly to my next prediction.

6. More Married Couples Will Start Businesses

As hubs sees wife's checking account balance blossom, he'll want to get in on the action. More couples will start figuring out ways to combine their talents, gifts, educational backgrounds and career experiences to make money online and at home. I've been doing it for years and it's a great thing, especially since I have young children. I predict lots more of you will do this in 2009. Welcome!

(I predict that the trend toward the new family business will lead to more couples choosing to stay together rather than separate or divorce when they encounter the proverbial "irreconcilable differences." Ask me how I know.)

7. Small Business Will Play a Larger Role in the Regulatory Environment

Indies will have to watch President-Elect Obama and his friends like hawks because they will be clamoring to pass new laws and implement new regulations to curb the selfish and out-of-control behavior of the mega-companies that don't fall prey to Prediction #3. Economic turmoil, corporate malfeasance and regulatory failures will lead to a more proactive government, which will not know how to regulate industries that are composed of both huge companies and tiny little ones online. Read this post to see how this is already happening, and get ready to learn how to converse with your elected leaders to make sure that your Indie Business is not regulated out of existence.

8. Online Real Estate Will Become the New Trademark Registration

As more people launch and expand online businesses, they'll reserve and use more and more domain names. Since formal trademark registration will be out of their price range, at least for the first few years, savvy Indies will begin to use online portals to use their brand names so frequently, ubiquitously and consistently that no one else will want to use them anyway -- trademark registration or not. It won't make sense to do so because the smart Indie has pretty much locked them up in cyberspace.

This trend will not make trademark registrations less important, nor will it put trademark attorneys out of business. But the projects for trademark attorneys who serve Indies will change significantly as more clients, particularly start-ups, seek advice on choosing and using domain names offensively than seek advice on actual registration of their marks. This trend will continue to be especially important as more Indies seek to expand their businesses globally. (This is another trend, but I'm stopping at #10.) In such cases, it will be more effective and cost effective to simply lock up foreign domain names than it will to file trademark applications around the world.

9. More Mobile Web Applications Will Come to Main Street

As more people rely on the Internet to enjoy life and business simultaneously, mobile devices will become less expensive and more prolific. This means that we'll be getting more business done faster using PDAs than ever before. It also means that we'll be getting more of our daily dose of national and global news via PDAs connected to the Internet rather than from traditional newspapers and radio and television broadcasts. (This is another trend, but once again, I have to stop somewhere!)

10. Collabetition Will Abound

More people will begin to successfully collaborate in profitable ventures with people that just last year were considered "the competition." I call this "collabetition," and if you're Indie, it's going to be one of the keys to your success. As more Indies figure out unique and fun ways to collaborate for success, collabetiton will become an integral point of leverage. Remember when the Big Three automakers went to Congress on separate corporate jets with their hats in their hands? They were sent home empty handed. When they returned a few weeks later, they did so together, even agreeing beforehand to work for a dollar a year if they got what they asked for. They got their money. Collabetition at it's best.

Best wishes for a fruitful 2009!

Question: What do you think of these predictions? Do you have any of your own to share?

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Comments

[Anne-Marie]

Great post, dM. I especially like your point about girls making more money than boys in the future. With women continuing to graduate college in larger % than men, the trend of women making less money than men for the same type of work is hopefully on its way out.

Here's to a great 2009 filled with much laughter, joy and happiness in whatever you do.

[Donna Maria @ Indie Beauty]

@Anne-Marie: What a great point to make about the tie-in to college. It's an interesting trend that will play in here as you say. Thanks for mentioning that. It's puts an additional and valuable gloss on the topic. Happy New Year to you too!

[Michelle Gephart]

Great post dM! Why am I not on facebook, twitter, etc?

I don't know who I am!

That make sound weird, but I have several "hobby sites" and I can't decide who I am!

Someplaces I'm SparklePuss, on YouTube, I'm Lemon Lollipop. This identity crisis is really a problem! I thought I'd be "makeScentsLLC" but that seems boring...

Is it as simple as "just choosing one"?

Thoughts?

[Donna Johnson]

@Michelle: Hi and thanks for your question. Yes, it's important to be clear on what you want to get out of a particular social site and why you are there. You may be at one site in your capacity as an entrepreneur and another in your capacity as a mom. However, since in both instances, you will have opportunities to promote your business, there should be continuity around how you identify yourself in both instances if you want to brand your business so people at both sites remember you and want to do business with you. Don't feel badly because it's not an unusual problem to have in our changing economy when everyone has a business doing something. But now that you know it's an issue, it's time to decide how you will use the social sites you are on to promtoe your business, and then to migrate to a consistent identity for each one so people (and you!) are not confused. I hope that helps!

[maggie, soap bartender @ a wild soap bar]

Expanding on comment #4...businesses (at least the smart ones) will use less credit too. Those businesses that are over-extended on credit will be the first to fail. The good news is that oftentimes, Indie business owners can take it nice and slow and pay as they go. That's what a wild soap bar did and we're way ahead of the game now!

[Donna Maria @ Indie Business]

@Maggie: That's a very good point. It's funny because my point was about business owners! But it was about Indie Business owners, and I think that while we may formally separate our business from our personal finances, they are nevertheless intertwined -- at least from the perspective that one feeds the other. If the person behind the Indie Business does not manage money wisely from a personal perspective, then the changes of them doing so in their Indie Business is pretty much nil. I love how you set such a good example of growing slowly and steadily, boostrapping as you went along, working closely with your husband and sons, and now, you have a fantastic brand and a bright future to show for it. As you say, the family that grinds together binds together. And that goes to Prediction #6. Waiting for your book on that! Congratulations and happy new year!

[wlbradley]

I think #8 is definitely true with the new domain naming rules coming into play. But the big money has already been spent by the likes of the Fortune 500 companies. I think small businesses will benefit from the new naming rules.

[Donna Maria @ Indie Business]

@wlbradley: Thanks for stopping here and leaving your comment. I think you are right. And what a great indiciation of how the playing field is leveling for Indie Business owners on all levels! Happy New Year!

[Fabienne]

People will voluntarily use less credit? Oh, yes indeed. PayPal has been the new wave and is the most woman friendly way to spend. It's where a woman can accumulate funds which are entirely hers, and spend them as she likes. Talk about a jar in which to store mad money! Perfect! No one else can look over your shoulder and tell you what to do with it, and it would be hard to take it out to spend on, say , your kid's braces or groceries, right? That just means women will spend their PayPal funds on online goods and services and not have a great big interest rate to pay.

For all of us indie beauty babes: ! Viva PayPal !

---Fabienne Christenson

P.S. Were it not for PayPal, I would not have been able to afford to take credit cards. My dear old "local bank" would have leached all of the $ out of my poor starting company, with thousands of dollars in fees to be able to take plastic. PayPal was a much much better bargain.

[Donna Johnson]

@Fabienne: PayPal is a great alternative I think. Thanks for reminding me of the connection. I bet the folks who started that company had situations like this in mind. And here we are! Merchant fees are astounding. I'm thankful for PayPal because it makes it easy for me to pay vendors as you say. It also make it easy for me to invoice people and be paid quickly and easily. Thanks for submitting your comments!

[Patrick]

I hope #7 and #10 come true, at the very least. Collaboration is what the new web is all about, and small businesses have been under-represented for far too long in Washington.